I provide weekly S&P 500 predictions and market forecasts using a systematic approach based on data analysis, not headlines or narratives. Each prediction represents a 95% confidence interval for next week market movements derived from historical patterns and volatility metrics.
I published my first prediction on November 25, 2024 on X.com. Since then, I've been consistently tracking performance and publishing weekly updates.
Learn more about the prediction methodology →🎯 Target range: 6,511–6,896
✅ Track record: 39/41 successful calls (95.1%)
Powell's September 23 speech reinforced dovish stance emphasizing employment risks following Fed's rate cut. Tokyo CPI at 2.5% came below 2.8% expectations, reducing BoJ rate hike pressure. European manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.5 while China PBOC pledged continued "moderately loose" monetary policy.
Range reflects systematic calibration to central bank messaging while maintaining independence from policy speculation. Lower range positioning acknowledges increased accommodation expectations across major economies.
Systematic, not reactive.
For informational purposes only.
Want early access to these predictions? Get them before they're public.
Get Weekly Updates🎯 Target range: 6,559–6,949
✅ Track record: 38/40 successful calls (95.0%)
Fed delivered 25bp "risk management" cut to 4.00-4.25% while BoJ held firm at 0.5% despite hawkish dissent. Central bank divergence continues as Fed cuts defensively while Japan maintains tightening bias>
Range reflects market confidence in Fed's measured approach while acknowledging cross-currents from global policy divergence. Post-meeting environment shows reduced volatility as policy path becomes clea>
Systematic, not reactive.
For informational purposes only.
🎯 Target range: 6,475–6,877
✅ Track record: 37/39 successful calls (94.9%)
Fed meeting Sep 16-17 features "bad news is good news" backdrop as employment weakness (jobless claims surge to 263K) meets rate cut positioning. Mixed inflation signals—CPI +0.4% monthly vs>
Range reflects systematic calibration to late-cycle dynamics while maintaining independence from Fed meeting speculation. Employment deterioration supports easing expectations but compass bo>
Systematic, not reactive.
For informational purposes only.
🎯 Target range: 6,334–6,746
✅ Track record: 36/38 successful calls (94.7%)
Fed meeting Sep 16-17 approaches as labor market shows continued softening with August payrolls at just +22K. Eurozone manufacturing returned to expansion (PMI 50.7) for first time since June 2022, while China shows PMI divergence between official (49.4) and private (50.5) surveys.
Range reflects systematic calibration while maintaining independence from Fed meeting speculation. Jobs weakness supports rate cut expectations but manufacturing mixed signals create policy uncertainty backdrop.
Systematic, not reactive.
For informational purposes only.
🎯 Target range: 6,311–6,725
✅ Track record: 35/37 successful calls (94.6%)
Systematic compass returns as markets price 70% probability of Fed rate cuts at September 16-17 meeting. Nvidia earnings ($46.7B revenue) demonstrate AI strength while German inflation acceleration (2.1%>
Range reflects systematic calibration to current volatility environment while maintaining independence from Fed meeting speculation. September policy uncertainty provides background context for continued>
Systematic, not reactive.
For informational purposes only.
🎯 Target range: 6,311–6,725
✅ Track record: 35/37 successful calls (94.6%)
Systematic compass returns as markets price 70% probability of Fed rate cuts at September 16-17 meeting. Nvidia earnings ($46.7B revenue) demonstrate AI strength while German inflation acceleration (2.1%) and China manufacturing contraction (PMI 49.4) create divergent central bank pressures.
Range reflects systematic calibration to current volatility environment while maintaining independence from Fed meeting speculation. September policy uncertainty provides background context for continued systematic approach.
Systematic, not reactive.
For informational purposes only.
🎯 Target range: 6,214–6,630
✅ Track record: 34/36 successful calls (94.4%)
Global manufacturing contraction persists across major economies with PMI readings below 50. US-China trade truce expires August 12 with potential escalation to 145% tariffs creating critical inflection point.
Range adjustment reflects systematic response to completed week while maintaining independence from headline volatility. Aug 12 deadline provides background context for emotional decision-making environment.
Systematic, not reactive.
For informational purposes only.
🎯 Target range: 6,060–6,465
✅ Track record: 33/35 successful calls (94.3%)
Compass adapts systematically following first miss since April 2025. Range shifts lower while maintaining 405-point width, reflecting systematic resp>
Employment shock (73K vs 100K+ expected) and Fed historic dissent (first two-governor split since 1993) provide background context. Compass adaptatio>
Systematic, not reactive.
For informational purposes only.
🎯 Target range: 6,260–6,666
✅ Track record: 33/34 successful calls (97.1%)
Model signals range of 406 points from systematic analysis. This week saw manufacturing PMI collapse to 49.5, ECB policy pause, and escalating August 1 trade deadline tensions as background context.
Systematic approach operates independently of headlines while markets processed manufacturing contraction and trade policy uncertainty. Range derived from internal model parameters ahead of critical policy deadlines.
Systematic, not reactive.
For informational purposes only.
🎯 Target range: 6,168–6,679
✅ Track record: 32/33 successful calls (97.0%)
Model signals range of 511 points from systematic analysis. This week saw CPI acceleration to 2.7%, Q1 GDP revision to -0.5%, and conflicting Fed signals as background context.
Systematic approach operates independently of headlines while markets processed mixed economic data and geopolitical developments. Range derived from internal model parameters, not news-driven adjustm>
Systematic, not reactive.
For informational purposes only.
🎯 Target range: 6,081–6,645
✅ Track record: 31/32 successful calls (96.9%)
Model compresses range significantly to 564 points from previous week's 1,135 points, reflecting systematic recognition of reduced immediate volatility following tariff deadline extension to August 1.>
Range compression signals stabilizing environment as Q2 earnings provide clarity and policy framework shifts from crisis to structured timeline. Forward signals suggest potential breakout conditions d>
Systematic, not reactive.
For informational purposes only.
🎯 Target range: 5,885–7,020
✅ Track record: 30/31 successful calls
Model maintains extended range as markets navigate post-tariff deadline clarity and earnings season catalysts. Strong employment data reshapes Fed expectations while geopolitical backdrop remains ele>
July 9 deadline resolution provides policy framework, yet systematic approach accounts for potential volatility from corporate earnings revelations and evolving central bank communications.
Systematic, not reactive.
For informational purposes only.
🎯 Target range: 5,305–6,636
✅ Track record: 28/29 successful calls
Model stays expanded as US enters Middle East conflict, escalating geopolitical uncertainty to unprecedented levels. Fed stagflation signals compound oil supply shock concerns following nuclear facili>
Multiple uncertainty sources converging across monetary policy, energy markets, and global security dynamics create sustained volatility environment requiring wide forecast parameters.
Systematic, not reactive.
For informational purposes only.
🎯 Target range: 5,406–6,581
✅ Track record: 27/28 successful calls
Model narrows range slightly while maintaining elevated uncertainty parameters driven by escalating Middle East conflict and monetary policy divergence.
Geopolitical shock waves from Israel-Iran exchanges since June 13 created significant risk-off sentiment, with oil markets posting largest single-day gains since March 2022. Fed decision Wednesda>
Systematic, not reactive.
For informational purposes only.
🎯 Target range: 5,242–6,651
✅ Track record: 26/27 successful calls
Model signals potential range narrowing by late July under baseline conditions, but maintains current expanded parameters due to elevated uncertainity patterns.
Trade friction drives central bank divergence — with the ECB cutting rates, the Fed managing inflation pressures, and China–US talks approaching.
Systematic, not reactive.
For informational purposes only.
🎯 Target range: 5,332-6,513
✅ Track record: 25/26 successful calls
Our systematic model keeps an extended range as uncertainty persists around volatile trade policy and emerging legal risks.
Despite a headline-heavy week — EU tariff delays, Nvidia earnings, weak China PMI, and Japan bond stress — markets traded in a tight band.
Such compression often precedes significant moves.
Systematic, not speculative.
For informational purposes only.
🎯 Target range: 5,192-6,348
✅ Track record: 24/25 successful calls
Model maintains wide range heading into Memorial Day week.
Shortened trading schedule and mixed global economic signals contribute to elevated uncertainty.
Systematic, not speculative.
For informational purposes only.
🎯 Target range: 5,407-6,615
✅ Track record: 23/24 successful calls
Our model maintains an expanded range as volatility persists and patterns remain unstable.
In the background: U.S. policy shifts, trade signals from China, and cautious optimism in Europe.
Systematic, not speculative.
For informational purposes only.
🎯 Target range: 5,050-6,296
Markets face persistent macro uncertainty:
US and China reinitiate trade dialogue, China eases policy, and geopolitical tensions linger in Europe. While headlines shift, our model remains grounded in data.
Systematic, not speculative.
For informational purposes only.
🎯 Target range: 5,075-6,330
Wider range reflects ongoing macro uncertainty and rising trade tensions.
Our model adjusts to evolving volatility — systematic, not speculative.
For informational purposes only.
🎯 Target range: 4,917–6,127
The wide range reflects elevated uncertainty and volatility, driven by trade tensions, weakening consumer sentiment, and tech-driven sector rotation.
Systematic, not speculative.
For informational purposes only.
🎯 Target range: 4,628–5,822
Markets remain unsettled after Powell's remarks and Trump's latest comments.
While headlines fuel uncertainty, my model stays grounded in data.
Systematic over speculative.
🎯 Target range: 4,783–5,918
Markets rebounded after the U.S. postponed most tariffs amid bond market stress.
Even China saw temporary relief in selected export segments. Risk sentiment has shown sign of stabilization, but how long will it last?
The macro backdrop remains complex.
My model doesn't react to headlines.
It tracks data. Systematically.
Through noise and narrative, numbers lead.
🎯 Target range: 4,615–5,379
Wider range reflects heightened post-tariff volatility
Markets remain in risk-off mode as structural uncertainty unfolds
My model stays systematic — not swayed by sentiment
How to interpret: The green bands represent weekly prediction ranges for the S&P 500 index. The red line shows the actual closing values. When the red line stays within the green band, the prediction was accurate. A red dot indicates where the actual value fell outside the predicted range.
This visualization demonstrates the model's accuracy. The width of prediction bands reflects expected market volatility for the given period.
My systematic approach to S&P 500 forecasts provides more than just weekly predictions. By analyzing patterns objectively, these forecasts offer valuable insight into the 2025 market outlook without being influenced by headlines or emotional reactions.
The predicted range widths reflect expected market volatility, which can be particularly useful for position sizing and risk management. During periods of higher predicted volatility, these forecasts can help inform hedging strategies or adjustments to portfolio exposure.
When markets deviate from predicted ranges, this often signals fundamental shifts in market dynamics – information that can be more valuable than the predictions themselves. These structured, data-driven forecasts help identify both potential risks and opportunities that narrative-focused analysis might miss.