Here you'll find relevant market information that helps maintain perspective and an objective view. We focus on significant developments that matter, not daily noise.
📊 This week's compass features systematic boundary analysis amid Aug 12 China trade deadline.
Manufacturing weakness across major economies and trade truce expiration create perfect environment for emotional decision-making. Weekly compass provides systematic boundaries when deadline anxiety dominates headlines.
Download complete edition: PDF version
📊 Newsletter-exclusive boundaries successful
Range: 291–328
Actual close: 313 ✅
Track record: 7/7 calls (100%)
Gold compass maintained perfect newsletter-exclusive accuracy amid trade deadline uncertainty. Safe-haven positioning held steady while Aug 12 China deadline created volatility backdrop across other assets.
📊 Range: 6,060–6,465
Actual close: 6,390 ✅
Track record: 34/36 successful calls (94.4%)
Boundaries contained close near range center despite global manufacturing contraction across US (48.0), China (49.3), and Japan (48.8). Systematic framework held through trade uncertainty and Fed policy developments.
We've published our S&P 500 compass for August 15.
The compass maintains systematic approach as Aug 12 China deadline creates volatility backdrop. Range reflects normal weekly movement boundaries independent of trade headline noise.
View the complete compass on our predictions page or on X.com/robustquant.
Paramount-Skydance merger completed yesterday. New ticker PSKY begins trading today with $28B enterprise value and immediate structural challenges.
S&P 500 removal probability: 90%+ due to Skydance's 70% ownership reducing public float below $22B requirement. Institutional selling pressure expected from $2T in index tracking funds.
Key metrics: $2B annual cost synergies targeted vs $1.6B integration costs. Scale mismatch (18,600 vs 500 employees) creates execution complexity. NFL renegotiation clause triggers $8-10B contract exposure risk.
Base case scenario: 25-35% downside from forced institutional selling. Monitor debt reduction progress and streaming profitability metrics.
We've published our S&P 500 compass for August 8.
The compass adapts systematically to regime shift signal from first miss. Range adjustment reflects systematic response to structural market change rather than reaction to economic headlines.
View the complete compass on our predictions page or on X.com/robustquant.
📊 This week's compass features first S&P 500 miss analysis and regime shift adaptation.
Employment shock (73K vs 100K+ jobs) and Fed historic dissent create perfect environment for emotional decision-making. Weekly compass provides systematic boundaries when panic dominates headlines.
Download complete edition: PDF version
📊 Range: 6,260–6,666
Actual close: 6,237 ❌
Track record: 33/35 successful calls (94.3%)
First miss signals potential market regime shift. Employment shock (73K jobs vs 100K+ expected) and historic Fed dissent may indicate structural change requiring compass adaptation.
📊 Newsletter-exclusive boundaries successful
Actual close: 309.74 ✅
Track record: 6/6 calls (100%)
Gold compass maintains perfect newsletter-exclusive accuracy while equity compass signals regime change. Asset-specific systematic performance continues amid market structural shift.
📊 Forecast: 6,168–6,679
Actual close: 6,390 ✅
Track record: 33/34 successful calls (97.1%)
Markets held systematic range despite manufacturing PMI collapse to 49.5 from expected 52.5 and escalating U.S.-EU trade tensions ahead of August 1 tariff deadline.
📊 Newsletter-exclusive forecast successful
Actual close: 307.25 ✅
Track record: 5/5 calls (100%)
Gold maintained systematic precision as safe-haven demand drove prices above $3,360 amid trade deadline uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. Newsletter-exclusive forecasts continue perfect accuracy.
We've published our S&P 500 forecast for August 1.
The model provides systematic range guidance ahead of critical trade deadline. Background context includes manufacturing contraction, ECB policy pause, and escalating U.S.-EU trade tensions for reader orientation.
View the complete prediction on our predictions page or on X.com/robustquant.
We've published our S&P 500 forecast for July 25.
The model provides systematic range guidance independent of recent headlines. Background context includes CPI data, Fed communications, and geopolitical developments for reader orientation.
View the complete prediction on our predictions page or on X.com/robustquant.
📊 Forecast: 6,081–6,645
Actual close: 6,297 ✅
Track record: 32/33 successful calls (97.0%)
Markets reached near-record highs despite CPI acceleration to 2.7% and Q1 GDP contraction revision, demonstrating systematic range resilience amid mixed economic signals.
📊 Newsletter-exclusive forecast successful
Actual close: 308.82 ✅
Track record: 4/4 calls (100%)
Gold maintained systematic precision amid dollar dynamics, CPI acceleration, and Israel-Iran tensions. Newsletter-exclusive forecasts continue perfect accuracy through volatile environment.
We've published our S&P 500 forecast for July 18.
The model shows significant range compression following tariff deadline extension and Q2 earnings clarity. Systematic signals detect reduced volatility environment ahead of potential late-July breako>
View the complete prediction on our predictions page or on X.com/robustquant.
📊 Forecast: 5,885–7,020
Actual close: 6,258 ✅
Track record: 31/32 successful calls (96.9%)
Markets navigated earnings season kickoff and tariff deadline extension within systematic range, closing near midpoint despite policy uncertainty.
📊 Newsletter-exclusive forecast successful
Actual close: 309 ✅
Track record: 3/3 calls (100%)
Gold maintained systematic precision despite tariff deadline shifts and dollar dynamics. Newsletter-exclusive forecasts continue perfect accuracy.
📊 Forecast: 282–333
Actual close: 306.4 ✅
Track record: 2/2 successful calls!
Gold stayed within systematic range despite dollar strength from upside employment surprises and reduced Fed cut expectations. Newsletter-exclusive forecasts maintain precision in volatile macro environment.
We've published our S&P 500 forecast for July 11.
This prediction addresses post-tariff deadline market dynamics, earnings season kickoff, and evolving Fed policy expectations following strong employment data.
View the complete prediction on our predictions page or on X.com/robustquant.
📊 Forecast: 5,491–6,897
Actual close: 6,278 ✅
Track record: 30/31 successful calls!
Markets hit fresh highs as strong US jobs data (147K vs 110K expected) drove systematic range validation amid ECB policy communications and US-Vietnam trade progress.
We've published our S&P 500 forecast for June 27.
The model retains a wide target range as global markets navigate intensifying geopolitical risks, including direct U.S. involvement in the Middle East. Fed stagflation warnings and oil supply concerns following strikes on nuclear facilities further amplify volatility signals.
View the complete forecast on our predictions page or on X.com/robustquant.
📊 S&P 500 Prediction Results (June 20):
Forecast: 5,406–6,581
Actual close: 5,968
✅ Accuracy: 28/29 calls (96.6%)
Markets closed just 25 points from the model's midpoint during a week shaped by Fed policy updates and rising geopolitical tensions. This outcome reinforces the model’s ability to stay calibrated in high-uncertainty environments.
📊 Gold (GLD) Prediction Results (June 20):
Forecast: 287–342
Actual close: 310
✅ Accuracy: 1/1 calls
Our first gold forecast, shared exclusively via the newsletter, closed well within range. The result reflects how the model accommodates elevated safe-haven demand without reacting to headlines.
We've published our S&P 500 prediction for June 20.
The model maintains elevated uncertainty amid escalating Middle East conflict and approaching Fed decision. Geopolitical volatility and oil market shock waves continue to drive expanded parameters.
View the complete prediction on our predictions page or on X.com/robustquant.
📊 S&P 500 Prediction Results (June 13):
Forecast: 5,242–6,651
Actual close: 5,977
✅ Accuracy: 27/28 calls (96.4%)
Markets experienced significant volatility following escalation of Middle East tensions, with the index closing well within our predicted range despite intraday swings. Our systematic approach correctly anticipated elevated volatility through expanded range parameters.
We've published our S&P 500 prediction for June 13.
The model maintains a broad range this week, reflecting persistent global uncertainty — including central bank divergence, volatile trade policy>
View the complete prediction on our predictions page.
📊 S&P 500 Prediction Results (June 6):
Forecast: 5,332–6,513
Actual close: 6,000
✅ Accuracy: 26/27 calls (96.3%)
Markets broke through the psychological 6,000 level, yet remained within our predicted range. Despite a week dominated by tariff uncertainty, legal headlines, and mixed macro signals, the model continued to demonstrate systematic precision.
We've published our S&P 500 prediction for June 6.
This forecast addresses persistent uncertainty around volatile trade policy and emerging legal risks, with our model maintaining an extended range as market compression patterns evolve.
View the complete prediction on our predictions page.
📊 S&P 500 Prediction Results (May 30):
Forecast: 5,192–6,348
Actual close: 5,912
✅ Accuracy: 25/26 calls (96%)
Memorial Day week volatility was captured within our systematic range despite shortened trading schedule and mixed global signals. Our data-driven precision continues to deliver consistent results.
We've published our S&P 500 prediction for May 30.
Our systematic approach continues with Memorial Day week forecast, maintaining our data-driven methodology for consistent market prediction accuracy.
View the complete prediction on our predictions page or on X.com/robustquant.
We've published our S&P 500 prediction for May 30.
Our systematic approach continues with Memorial Day week forecast, maintaining our data-driven methodology for consistent market prediction accuracy.
View the complete prediction on our predictions page or on X.com/robustquant.
🔄 $COIN joins S&P 500, replacing $DFS!
Coinbase Global ($COIN), the first cryptoexchange to enter the index, will replace Discover Financial Services ($DFS) on May 19th.
The change comes as Capital One ($COF) acquires Discover, pending final closing conditions. Coinbase shares jumped 9% on May 16th in anticipation of the milestone inclusion.
This index addition is significant as inclusion typically drives increased institutional investment and stock price appreciation. Research shows companies added to major indices often experience long-term outperformance, while removed stocks may face downward pressure as index-tracking funds divest their positions.
Our latest S&P 500 forecast for May 23 has been published.
The prediction maintains our 95% confidence interval methodology and systematic approach, accounting for recent market developments.
View the complete prediction on our predictions page or on X.com/robustquant.
📊 S&P 500 Prediction Results (May 16):
Forecast: 5,050–6,296
Actual close: 5,958.4
✅ Track record: 23/24 successful calls!
Amid a week of shifting US–China trade narratives and policy moves, markets closed well within our projected range.
We've published our S&P 500 prediction for May 16.
This forecast addresses persistent macro uncertainty, US-China trade dialogue, and geopolitical tensions in Europe.
View the complete prediction on our predictions page or on X.com/robustquant.
Our latest S&P 500 forecast for May 9 is now available.
This prediction accounts for ongoing macro uncertainty and rising trade tensions, with our model adjusting to evolving volatility patterns.
View the complete prediction on our predictions page or on X.com/robustquant.
We've published our S&P 500 prediction for May 2.
This forecast addresses elevated uncertainty and volatility, driven by trade tensions, weakening consumer sentiment, and tech-driven sector rotation.
View the complete prediction on our predictions page or on X.com/robustquant.
Our latest S&P 500 forecast for April 25 is now available.
This prediction takes into account market uncertainty following Powell's remarks and Trump's latest comments, while maintaining our systematic data-driven approach.
View the complete prediction on our predictions page or on X.com/robustquant.